We’re all taking a collective “L” at the moment due to the coronavirus, so I’ve been thinking about what I’d like to accomplish during my time as a quarantine hobbit. What struck me as the most important (and interesting) topic to dive into is risk, specifically how it’s viewed and managed by real people.
It’s become clear to me that there is still a widespread problem of risk illiteracy. World leaders and average people alike are not making decisions that make sense given the risk profiles they’re given, and it’s already cost many people their lives. Risk is now, in my opinion, the most important topic to educate yourself about.
This opinion isn’t entirely out of the blue: I have a background in risk management. I managed millions of dollars as an options trader and I’ve spent a substantial amount of time thinking about (and, most importantly, acting on) what I’ve learned in that arena.
Understanding how to weigh probabilities, think in terms of expected value, make bets with favorable odds, search for an edge, and so on — all of it started with trading.
It’s easy to find big books and complex mathematical formulas for finding and avoiding risk, but given our experience with how well that’s worked out so far, it’s clear there’s still much more to learn. What that is, I’m not sure. But my goal is to go out into the world and find out.
So why am I telling you all of this? It’s pretty simple, really: I want to help reduce the problem of risk illiteracy.
As such, I’m looking to talk to real risk-takers about how they think about and deal with risks. Specifically, I’d like to speak with anyone in a risk-heavy occupation and engage in a mutual exchange of knowledge.
This is knowledge I’ll be using in my next big project.
Here are some examples off the top of my head of who would be well-suited to these types of conversations:
- Investors (VC/PE/whatever) and traders
- C-level executives
- Poker (or other game) players
- Athletes, especially those in more dangerous sports (diving, climbing, fighting, etc.)
- First responders (EMTs, firefighters, police, etc.)
These are just ideas — if you don’t fit that description, that’s fine. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the most interesting insights about risk came from people who I never would have guessed about ahead of time.
What’s In It For You
Given the nature of our global situation, I’m not doing this in the name of making money for myself. The goal is to get a better grasp of risk, and in exchange maybe we can help each other handle our own risk profiles in a smarter way.
With that in mind, I’m thinking we can trade your thoughts for something useful from me. Do you need help learning faster? Would you like a risk management plan? Are you in need of someone to bounce new ideas off of?
At the very least, I’ll give you credit in my next project if you provide something useful.
Just tell me what you’re thinking and we can go from there.
We’re all stuck indoors and it’s intensely stressful for many of us, so I figure this is a nice way to at least relieve some of the tension and come up with a plan for recovering from this mess we find ourselves in.
If this sounds interesting to you, here’s a short form you can use to set up a call: Risk conversation form.